Galveston is no stranger to tropical weather. During hurricane season, from June 1st through November 30th, Galvestonians keep a close eye on the Gulf, and to trusted weather sources. This is also the height of the tourism season for the island. We’ve compiled tropical weather data below to help you plan your travels.
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National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Discussion
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Mar 26 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC.
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Seas are forecast to peak around 12 to 13 ft each morning in the vicinity of 12N75W. Recent scattetometer data provide observations of 25 to 30 kt witin about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, with 20 to 25 kt winds elsewhere across the central Caribbean.
Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell associated with a complex storm system over the north-central Atlantic has propagated into the forecast waters. Seas greater than 12 ft are covering the waters N of 30N between 38W and 52W, peaking near 15 ft. Seas in excess of 12 ft will spread over the waters north of 25N and east of 45W Sun and Sun night, before shifting east of 35W early Mon. Maximum combined seas will be 17 ft near 31N42W late today. Wave periods will average 14 to 16 seconds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 07N11W and continues SW to 02N22W. The ITCZ extends from 02N22W to 01N30W to 00N50W. A large cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to 03N between 07W and 11W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere, from 00N to 05N between 05W and 19W. Similar convective activity is also seen from 00N to 02N between 30W and 40W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure located south of Bermuda has a ridge extending across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Under the influence of this system, gentle to moderate southerly winds are observed across the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range north of the Yucatan peninsula, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere N of 22N and W of 85W. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the offshore waters of Florida, and 2 to 4 ft in the Bay of Campeche. Buoy and platform observations indicate areas of fog over the NW Gulf while abundant cloudiness dominates the coastal waters of Texas due to the presence of stationary front located just inland.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula during the evening hours through Tue. A cold front entering the northwestern Gulf on Tue morning will move southeastward and reach from the Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico Tue night. It will then weaken and reach from the Florida Straits to the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected at the northwestern Gulf behind the front into Wed morning. Afterward, a high pressure near the US Mid-Atlantic coast will reinforce the front and create moderate to fresh easterly winds across the Bay of Campeche and southeastern Gulf after midweek.
Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.
Strong to near gale-force winds prevail over the south central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia while fresh to strong winds are seen over the remainder of the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong SE winds are noted W of 84W, including the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere, except gentle winds in the lee of Cuba. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range over the south central Caribbean based on a pair of altimeter passes, and 6 to 8 ft over the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere, except 2 to 4 ft in the lee of Cuba.
Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Some of these patches of moisture are affecting the Leeward Islands, the US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and also the Cayman Islands.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean through the middle of the week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night through Tue night. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the Windward Passage and north of Hispaniola through Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras until Wed afternoon, occasionally reaching near-gale force locally. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.
Refer to the section above for details on the significant swell event that is already propagating across the forecast waters.
High pressure of 1023 mb is centered south of Bermuda near 29N63W and dominates the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and Florida. The associated ridge also reaches the NE Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are between Haiti and the Turks and Caicos Islands, including the approach to the Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high. A cold front extends from 31N39W to 28N45W to 30N57W. Moderate to fresh winds are on either side of the front mainly N of 27N and E of 50W. The aforementioned swell event follows this front forecast to move SE through Sun while weakening. Aside from the area of seas greater than 12 ft, seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail N of 28N between 35W and 55W. A ridge extends across the Madeira and the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between 55W and the Lesser Antilles while mainly moderate trades are noted across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft range.
For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on Tue evening, then slowly track eastward north of 26N through Fri. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and higher seas are anticipated in the vicinity of the cold front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh NE to E winds across the Bahamas by Thu.
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