|TUESDAY, JULY 29, 2014
PARTLY CLOUDY AND HOT THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY BE BREWING IN THE ATLANTIC
Partly cloudy and hot today with a 20% chance of thundershowers this morning, increasing to a 30% chance this afternoon. High temperatures will range from the low-90's in Galveston to the mid-90's on the mainland. We should have southwest winds at 5-10 mph. It will be partly cloudy and mild tonight with a 20% chance of thundershowers after midnight. Low temperatures will range from near 80 on the Island to the upper-70's on the mainland. Expect southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Wednesday should bring partly cloudy and hot temperatures with a 20% chance of showers or thunderstorms. Highs will be in the low-90's. Expect southerly winds at 10-15 mph. On Thursday, we should see partly cloudy skies and hot temperatures with a 20% chance of thundershowers. Highs will be in the low-90's.. Winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.
SYNOPSIS AND OUTLOOK:Partly cloudy, hot conditions will prevail along with a chance of rain as the high pressure center to our east weakens and a cold front over East Texas slowly sags south to near the coast.
At the surface, high pressure sits over the Gulf of Mexico this morning. To the north, an elongated and slow-moving cold front extends south from the Rockies and then eastward across central and east Texas to the northern Gulf Coast and a east of South Carolina in the Atlantic. High pressure is pushing south from Montana and North Dakota to Oklahoma and Missouri. High pressure also sits over southwest Colorado. At the upper-levels, a broad high pressure ridge extends all the way from west Texas and the Desert Southwest north to Canada. To the east, a low pressure trough is dipping south into New England and eastern third of the country.
Steamy, summer weather should continue for a while longer, but rain chances will re-appear along with slightly milder temperatures. The upper-level high will weaken and shift west, while the trough to the east builds back to the west. Meanwhile, a cold front should sag slowly south to southeast Texas. An upper-level short-wave should move south by late Thursday into Friday, bringing a slightly better chance of rain as we end the week.
We continue to focus this morning continue tropical wave (93L) in the central Tropical Atlantic, located about 1,600 mile east of the Lesser Antilles. Although storm activity and overall organization have been gradually increasing, there has been some decrease in organization over the past couple of hours. Nevertheless, the National Hurricane Center now gives it a 70% chance of development over the coming 48-hours and an 80% chance for development over the coming five days. Otherwise, the Tropical Atlantic Basin is about as tranquil as could be expected at this time of year.