|THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2014
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WARM THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY--SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
Mostly cloudy and warm today with an 80% chance of showers or thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in the mid-80's. We should have southeast winds at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly this afternoon. It will be mostly cloudy and mild tonight with a 40% chance of showers or thunderstorms, decreasing to a 30% chance after midnight. Low temperatures will be in the mid-70's. Expect southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Friday should bring mostly cloudy skies and warm temperatures with a 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms. Highs will be in the mid-80's. Expect easterly winds at 10-15 mph. On Saturday, we should see mostly to partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures with a 30% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms. Highs will be in the upper-80's. Winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph.
SYNOPSIS AND OUTLOOK:Mostly cloudy skies and periods of showers and thunderstorms are in our picture through Thursday. Deep low level moisture flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico and high level moisture and a weak disturbance moving in from central Texas.
A mostly stationary frontal boundary extends all the way from Montana southeastward through the Plains and Deep South to a low in Georgia and then on east into the Atlantic. High pressure has developed over the Rockies and Four Corners region of the West. To the north, a slow moving cold front is pushing south across the Great Lakes with high pressure behind the front over eastern Canada. Far to the west, a Pacific cold front is coming ashore over California.
At the upper-levels, we see a high pressures ridge building over the western half of the U.S. with a low pressure trough over the eastern third.
Wet conditions and a chance of heavy rain will continue through tomorrow. We should see a decrease in rain chances and more sunshine as we move into the weekend, though a chance of scattered thundershowers will remain.
We've seen little change in the Tropical Atlantic Basin since yesterday, though Hurricane Edouard continues to hang on in the Atlantic.
At 5 am AST, Hurricane Edouard was centered near 39.6 N and 45.3 W. The hurricane was moving east-northeast at 28-mph. This should keep it well away from any land. Edouard has remained its organization, though it is gradually weakening as it moves through sub-80° waterss. Currently, sustained winds are 85-mph with a central pressure at 965 MB (28.50").
Second, a tropical wave moving off the African coast is being given a 10% chance for developing over the coming 48-hours and a 20% chance for developing over the coming 5 days. Meanwhile, some models try to develop a low off the South Carolina coast this weekend and have it track northeast near the Outer Banks.