THURSDAY, AUGUST 25, 2016
HURRICANE GASTON HEADS NORTH IN THE ATLANTIC. DISTURBANCE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS STILL HAS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP--MORE INFO. IN TROPICAL TRACKER ON RIGHT AND IN TROPICAL SUMMARY BELOW
PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
Partly cloudy early with a 20% chance of isolated thundershowers, becoming mostly cloudy this afternoon with a 30% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms. High temperatures will range from the upper-80[s in Galveston to the low-90's on the mainland. Look for easterly winds at 5-10 mph.
Mostly cloudy tonight with a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms, increasing to a 40% chance after midnight. Overnight lows will be in the upper-70's. Look for easterly winds at 5-10 mph.
Mostly cloudy tomorrow with a 60% chance of of showers or thunderstorms early, decreasing to a 50% chance by the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper-80's. Expect easterly winds at 5-10 mph.
On Saturday, we anticipate mostly cloudy skies and with a 50% chance of showers or thunderstorms. Highs will be in the upper-80's. We should have northeast winds at 10-15 mph.
SYNOPSIS AND OUTLOOK
Increasing clouds and rain chances are in our picture as we finish the week. Deeper Gulf moisture and weak upper-level disturbances will drift into our area on the southern side of the high pressure ridge. This will result in shower and thunderstorm activity through Saturday.
NATIONAL OUTLOOK:This morning, we find a slow-moving cold front extending all the way from western Nevada east and southeast to the Texas Panhandle and the southern Plains. The front then bends east-northeastward to the Great Lakes and a low in eastern Canada. Other attached lows are located along the front in northeast Utah and northwest Kansas. High pressure areas are found off the East Coast and the West Coast.
At the upper-levels, we continue in a slightly amplified pattern with a pressure ridge over the Deep South and along parts of the East Coast. To the west, an upper-level low pressure trough is digging south from North Dakota to Arizona and New Mexico.
Rain chances and clouds are expected to increase through tomorrow as a trough to our north weakens the upper-level high, deeper Gulf moisture moves back into the area and weak disturbances drift in from the east. A stronger mid and upper-level disturbance this weekend may keep rain around on Saturday with a weak surface low possibly forming along or just offshore of the Texas coast.
At 5 am AST, Hurricane Gaston is moving northwest at 17-mph near 19.5 N and 43.3 W. Sustained winds were 75-mph with a barometric pressure of 988 MB (29.18"). Next, a disturbance (99L) nearing the southeast Bahamas has 50% chance of developing over the next 48-hours and an 80% chance over 5 days. Models vary over the longer-term, with some sending the disturbance northwest in the vicinity of Florida and others suggesting a more westerly track. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm development is not expected.