|MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 1, 2014
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SYSTEM IN BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY DEVELOP--SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF TEXAS.
Partly cloudy and warmer today with a 20% chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms. High temperatures will be near 90. We should have southeast winds at 5-10 mph. It will be partly cloudy and mild tonight with a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms after midnight. Low temperatures will be near 80. Expect southeast winds at 10-15 mph. Monday should bring mostly to partly cloudy skies and and a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the upper-80's. Expect southeast winds at 10-15 mph. On Wednesday, we should see partly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be near 90. Winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 mph.
SYNOPSIS AND OUTLOOK:We should see more sun, hotter temperatures and only a slight chance of isolated thundershowers today. Rain chances may increase a little tomorrow as deeper moisture flows into the area on the north side of the system expected to move towards the Mexican coast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
At the surface, high pressure is ridging southwest from the Carolinas to Texas. To our north, a mostly stationary front extends all the way from southern Nevada to the central Plains and then northward to a low in Canada. Another frontal boundary extends southeastward from that low across the Great Lakes to another low over eastern Canada.
At the upper-levels, a broad, weak low pressure trough is moving into the central and northern Great Plains. Weak high pressure persists off the West and East Coasts as a mostly zonal west to east flow continues over the U.S.
Expect somewhat drier and hotter conditions today. We may see some increase in clouds and rain chances tomorrow as a system in the Bay of Campeche funnels extra moisture north to the Texas coast. Looking further ahead, a large upper-level high will build over the Southeastern U.S. and Texas later this week, resulting in more sun and hotter conditions as we move towards the end of the week.
We begin the busy month of September with one distinct threat in the Tropical Atlantic Basin. A 1009 MB (29.80") low and tropical wave (99L) has crossed the Yucatan Peninsula and emerged into the eastern Bay of Campeche. It is being given a 60% chance of developing over the coming 48-hours and a 70% chance of developing before in makes landfall on the Mexican coast.
Elsewhere, the Tropical Atlantic Basin has quieted down somewhat, even though four additional tropical waves are moving west across the region. Storm activity remains fairly minimal with all of these and the National Hurricane Center is not assigning any a probability for development at this time. Nevertheless, we will continue to monitor these systems as they head towards the Caribbean Sea and a more favorable environment.