Tropical Weather

Galveston is no stranger to tropical weather. During hurricane season, from June 1st through November 30th, Galvestonians keep a close eye on the Gulf, and to trusted weather sources. This is also the height of the tourism season for the island. We’ve compiled tropical weather data below to help you plan your travels.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue May 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0417 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 02N32W and to 04N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 07N and east of 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold and warm fronts over the north-western and north-central Gulf respectively, are producing strong thunderstorms N of 25.5N west of 88W. The fast-moving squalls are producing gusts to near gale-force, frequent lightning strikes and heavy downpours. Over the northeastern Gulf, a pair of troughs are producing scattered moderate to strong convection N of 27N east of 85W. Otherwise, weak high pressure dominates the rest of the basin, maintaining fairly dry weather conditions. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present off northern Yucatan, especially south of 24N and between 87W and 88W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

Agricultural fires in SE Mexico and Central America, along with southerly flow over the Gulf of Mexico, result in hazy skies across the western portion of the basin, especially in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will linger across the northern Gulf over the next few days along with an inverted trough. This will cause heavy rain and thunderstorms over the northern basin the next few days. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, pulsing to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel. Winds may weaken somewhat during the upcoming weekend as the gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high pressure system near 36N71W and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain strong to near-gale easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present in the north-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support strong to near gale E to SE winds near the Gulf of Honduras, with fresh to strong winds expected in the south- central basin through most of the week. Seas will build through the week as a result of the increasing winds. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through most of the week. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across some areas of the northwestern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed entering the basin near 31N56W and continues southwestward to 27N57W then becomes a stationary front and extends to 24N73W. Scattered showers are evident on satellite imagery ahead of the frontal boundary to 51W and north of 26N. Tightening pressure gradient sustains moderate to fresh southerly winds west of 77W and north of 26N. The rest of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge over the NE Atlantic. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the central and western Atlantic.

Farther east, fresh to strong northerly winds and 7-10 ft seas are noted north of 15N and east of 22W. In the rest of the eastern Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front is forecast to progress eastward while weakening, reaching from near 27N55W to 22N65W by early Tue. High pressure will build in its wake. Fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas are forecast offshore N Florida by late tonight ahead of another possible cold front. That front may reach from near 31N76W to 27N80W by early Thu, weakening and stalling from 31N69W to near the northern Bahamas by early Fri. Conditions around the front should improve by late Fri into the upcoming weekend.

KR