Tropical Weather

Galveston is no stranger to tropical weather. During hurricane season, from June 1st through November 30th, Galvestonians keep a close eye on the Gulf, and to trusted weather sources. This is also the height of the tourism season for the island. We’ve compiled tropical weather data below to help you plan your travels.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat May 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf, from the Florida Panhandle to northeast portions of Tamaulipas, Mexico. No significant convection is associated with the front. Behind the front, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds dominate the rest of basin ahead of the front, becoming southwesterly across the Florida Big Bend. Fresh winds are pulsing near the Yucatan Channel and the Bay of Campeche, where the diurnal thermal trough has developed. Seas are slight to moderate across the entire basin.

For the forecast, the stationary front extending from the western Florida panhandle to inland Mexico just north of Tampico will transition back to a cold front and move southeastward across the basin, reaching from near Tampa Bay, Florida to S Texas early Sat. The front will stall again from the Straits of Florida to S Texas on Sun, then gradually weaken with its remnants lifting back N as a warm front through Sun night. Moderate to locally fresh northeast winds will follow the front into Sat evening. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate for the start of next week, with another front or trough possibly impacting the western Gulf by Tue. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening starting Sat. East winds at fresh speeds are expected to develop in the NW Gulf Wed and Wed night and in the far south-central Gulf near and in the Yucatan Channel.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean, as high pressure is centered across the east-central Atlantic, and extends a weak ridge westward to south Florida. Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail over most of the basin, except fresh to strong E to SE winds across outer portions of the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are slight to moderate across the basin, with peak seas to 6 ft across the Gulf of Honduras. Stable atmospheric conditions now dominate most of the basin. The exception is about the monsoon trough, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted between 10N and 12N W of 75W.

For the forecast, the high pressure N of the basin will continue support fresh to strong winds near the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh winds in the S-central and SE Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the weekend. The pressure gradient will tighten early next week, with fresh to strong trades in the S-central and NW Caribbean, and moderate to fresh elsewhere. Seas will build next week as a result of the increasing winds. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across most of the NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1014 mb surface low is analyzed near 25N59W. A surface trough is from 30N58W to 21N60W. To the east, another trough is analyzed from 29N48W to 19N48W. Scattered showers are noted along these features. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 33N33W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are present north of 27N and west of 65W. South of the ridge, gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail north of the Greater Antilles to 22N. Seas are slight to moderate across these waters, reaching 6 to 7 ft along 31N in the fresh southwesterly winds. Gentle to moderate NE to E are present east of 48W. Moderate seas in northerly swell prevail across these waters, with peak seas 7 to 8 ft from 10N to 20N between 30W and 40W.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging over the area will continue to retreat eastward as a cold front moves off the southeastern United States tonight, reaches from 31N74W to near West Palm Beach, Florida early Sat, then from just southeast of Bermuda to the Straits of Florida early Sun. Fresh to strong winds will be ahead of the front through Sat evening, with moderate to fresh winds behind the front. Seas to around 8 ft are expected with the fresh to strong winds. The front is expected to weaken and slow down as it reaches from 31N59W to the southeastern Bahamas early Mon, then from 29N55W to 23N65W early Tue as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Another front may move over the waters east of northeast Florida around mid-week. Ahead of this possible next front, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the northwest part of the area starting late Mon.

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